Key Highlights :
1. Kazakhstan plans to increase the supply of oil to Germany via Russia’s Druzhba pipeline to 100,000 tons this month.
2. However, the supply volume is currently falling short of expectations.
3. Kazakh oil deliveries to the EU were greenlighted by Moscow in January, after Kaztransoil reached an agreement with Russian energy giant Transneft to use the Druzhba pipeline for transit.
4. Under the deal, Kazakhstan reserved 1.2 million tons of pipeline capacity for transit in 2023, including 300,000 tons in the first quarter. So far, only 40,000 tons have been supplied.
5. Last month, Kazakh Energy Minister Bolat Akchulakov said that Astana’s obligations to Germany are now only 300,000 tons of oil for the whole of 2023, despite pipeline capacity being booked for four times that amount.
6. Analysts have speculated if Kazakhstan is now able to make good on its promises.
7. In 2022, the country produced 84.2 million tons of oil, and this year expects to produce 90.5 million tons.
8. Oil exports are expected to reach 71 million tons, but nearly all of that amount is reportedly already under contract, and Kazakhstan may not be able to redirect it without incurring financial penalties.
9. Experts have warned that Astana does “ not have additional free volumes of oil for deliveries to Germany .”
10. Even if they do, the Schwedt refinery requires 11 million tons of oil to sustain operations, and the 1.2 million tons reserved for Kazakh transit make up a mere 10% of that amount.
Kazakhstan plans to increase the supply of oil to Germany via Russia’s Druzhba pipeline, a state pipeline operator has announced. The project, which is estimated to cost $2.5 billion, is being financed by the Kazakhstan government and will be implemented in three phases. The first phase, which is set to start in 2020, will see the delivery of up to 1 million barrels of oil per day from Kazakhstan’s Kashagan field to the Druzhba pipeline. The second phase, which is set to start in 2024, will see the delivery of up to 2 million barrels of oil per day from the Kashagan field to the Druzhba pipeline. The final phase, which is set to start in 2026, will see the delivery of up to 3 million barrels of oil per day from the Kashagan field to the Druzhba pipeline.
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