Northeast to See 52% Increase in Extreme Precipitation Events by End of Century: Dartmouth Study
Key Highlights :
With the world increasingly warming due to climate change, the Northeast region of the United States is expected to experience a 52% increase in extreme precipitation events by the end of the century, according to a new Dartmouth College study published in Climatic Change.
Extreme precipitation events are defined as about 1.5 or more inches of heavy rainfall or melted snowfall in a day. The Northeast region includes Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, West Virginia, and Washington, D.C.
The findings of the study show that winter and spring will contribute most to the increase in extreme precipitation, with increases of 109% and 89% respectively. The increase in extreme precipitation is largely due to the warmer temperatures creating more water vapor in the atmosphere, leading to the right conditions for extreme precipitation.
The study also found that the increase in extreme precipitation will be primarily driven by more frequent heavy rainfall events, not by the intensity of such events. The researchers applied a regional climate model from the National Center for Atmosphere Research to simulate precipitation for a historical period of 1996 to 2005 and future period of 2070 to 2099.
The study found that extreme precipitation increases are projected to be largest in West Virginia, parts of Pennsylvania, central New York, and northeastern Maine, with predominantly smaller increases along the Atlantic coast and south of Lake Ontario.
The research team also found that their results were consistent with simulations of changing heavy rainfall events from other regional climate models, which predict increases in extreme precipitation ranging from 58% to 169%.
Extreme precipitation events can pose threats to life, property, infrastructure, and the environment. Flooding, landslides, and erosion from these events can wash out roads, trigger agricultural runoff of pollutants, and damage recreational areas.
In order to manage the extra water expected from these extreme precipitation events, it is important to understand where the flood plain is located, have the right sized culverts or green infrastructure in place, and properly design roads and bridges.
The findings of this study are a reminder of the importance of taking action to mitigate climate change and its effects on the environment. It is essential to reduce emissions and invest in renewable energy sources in order to help prevent further increases in extreme precipitation events in the Northeast and beyond.
