Asian Stock Markets Surge on Optimism of Federal Reserve Rate Pause

Current World Trends


Key Highlights :

1. The global market rally continued on Monday, with stocks in Asia extending the rally that started on Friday.
2. Oil prices rose after Saudi Arabia pledged big output cuts, and Treasury yields rose on expectations of no rate cuts this month.
3. The US economy added 339,000 jobs last month, higher than most estimates, but moderating wage growth and rising jobless rate led markets to continue to bet on no change in Fed rates this month.
4. Markets see a sizable chance - about 40 per cent - that the RBA could surprise with a quarter-point hike on Tuesday.




     Asian stock markets extended a global rally on Monday, driven by optimism that the Federal Reserve would pause its rate hikes this month after a mixed US jobs report. Japan's Nikkei surged 1.7 per cent to stand above 32,000 for the first time since July 1990, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose 0.6 per cent. Oil prices also rose after Saudi Arabia announced it would cut its output to nine million barrels per day in July, from around 10 million bpd in May, the biggest reduction in years.

     MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 0.2 per cent, while China's bluechips underperformed with a drop of 0.4 per cent. Brent oil rose one per cent to $US76.89 a barrel, giving up some of its earlier gains to as high as $US78.73, while US crude climbed 1.2 per cent to $US72.61 a barrel, after hitting a session high of $US75.06.

     The US jobs report on Friday showed US economy added 339,000 jobs last month, higher than most estimates, but moderating wage growth and rising jobless rate led markets to continue to bet on no change in Fed rates this month, with a 75 per cent chance priced in for that, according to CME FedWatch tool. Treasury yields continued to climb on Monday. Yields on US two-year Treasuries rose 4 basis points to 4.5449 per cent, on top of a surge of 16.2 bp on Friday, and 10-year yields also climbed 3 bps to 3.7215 per cent, after a rise of 8 bps on Friday.

     The US dollar remained elevated on Monday at 104.14 against its major peers, after gaining 0.5 per cent on Friday on the jobs report. The greenback also rose 0.16 per cent on the Japanese yen to 140.17 while the euro eased 0.1 per cent to $US0.10698.

     Central banks from Australia and Canada will meet this week. Markets see a sizeable chance - about 40 per cent - that the RBA could surprise with a quarter-point hike on Tuesday, after a minimum wages decision that some economists feared could further stoke inflationary pressures. The Bank of Canada will meet on Wednesday. A majority of economists polled by Reuters expect the BOC to keep interest rates on hold at 4.5 per cent for the rest of the year although the risk of one more rate hike remains high.

     The optimism surrounding the Federal Reserve's expected rate pause this month has been a major factor in the surge of Asian stock markets. The mixed US jobs report, a resolution to the debt-ceiling issue and the prospect of a US rate pause this month have all contributed to the positive sentiment. Oil prices have also been bolstered by Saudi Arabia's pledge to cut its output to nine million barrels per day in July, the biggest reduction in years, while a broader OPEC+ deal to limit supply into 2024 has also underpinned futures.

     Overall, Asian stock markets have extended a global rally on Monday, driven by optimism that the Federal Reserve would pause its rate hikes this month after a mixed US jobs report. Japan's Nikkei surged 1.7 per cent to stand above 32,000 for the first time since July 1990, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose 0.6 per cent. Oil prices have also been bolstered by Saudi Arabia's pledge to cut its output to nine million barrels per day in July, the biggest reduction in years, while a broader OPEC+ deal to limit supply into 2024 has also underpinned futures. Central banks from Australia and Canada will meet this week, with markets expecting the RBA to surprise with a quarter-point hike on Tuesday, while the Bank of Canada is likely to keep interest rates on hold at 4.5 per cent for the rest of the year.



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