Navigating Climate Change: Arctic Terns May be Resilient to Global Warming
Key Highlights :
Climate change is one of the greatest threats to our planet and its inhabitants. As temperatures rise, sea levels rise, and ecosystems are disrupted, many species are struggling to adapt and survive. Arctic terns, however, may be able to navigate the dangers posed by climate change, according to a new study led by the University of Exeter and the Met Office.
Arctic terns are some of the most incredible creatures on Earth. They live in near-perpetual daylight, breeding in the north of our planet and flying to Antarctica for the Southern Hemisphere summer. In their lifetime, they can cover enough distance to travel to the moon three times - the longest migrations of any animal on Earth.
The research team examined the likely impacts of climate change on arctic terns outside of the breeding season. They investigated changes to prevailing winds, primary productivity (which affects food availability) at key sites visited by Arctic terns, and Antarctic sea ice. The paper, published in the journal Global Change Biology, is titled "Global warming and Arctic terns: estimating climate change impacts on the world's longest migration."
The study concluded that the overall effects of climate change for migrating terns should be minor. They are likely to be resilient due to living their lives over such vast areas. However, the researchers warn that multiple small effects may still harm this long-lived (up to 30 years) species—and other species may be unable to escape local and regional changes.
The team used observations of ongoing climate change and multiple climate and Earth System Models to project changes by 2100. It examined the impacts of two emissions scenarios: "middle-of-the-road" and "fossil-fueled development." The latter led to a projected decline of primary productivity in the North Atlantic—a key feeding ground for millions of seabirds and other marine animals.
Meanwhile, the impact of likely Antarctic sea ice decline on terns is uncertain, and the projections suggested small changes to prevailing winds would have "minimal impacts" on tern migration—except in the Southern Ocean, where strengthening winds may force the birds to shift flight routes.
The interdisciplinary approach of the study began with a virtual Climate Data Challenge "hackathon" facilitated by the University of Bristol and the Met Office. This allowed ecologists to work with climate scientists, bringing together different skills and approaches.
Overall, the study suggests that Arctic terns may be able to navigate the dangers posed by climate change. However, the researchers warn that multiple small effects may still harm this long-lived species—and other species may be unable to escape local and regional changes. Meeting carbon emissions targets is vital to slow these projected end-of-century climatic changes and minimize extinction risk for all species.
