The 7th Population Census of Pakistan in 2023: Exploring the Rapid Decline in Population
Key Highlights :
The 7th Population Census of Pakistan in 2023 has been a subject of great interest and debate. On 5th August, the Council of Common Interests unanimously approved the results of the 7th Population Census of Pakistan, and immediately received a note of thanks from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), the architect of the Census. In May 2023, Pakistan was declared to have a population of 249.6 million and an annual growth rate of more than 3 percent. This number was revised downward to 241.5 in August, and an annual growth rate of 2.55 %. The rapid decline of the population from 250 to 241.5 million in a few weeks raises many questions and calls for an explanation.
The revision of the population figures has been attributed to a post-enumeration survey conducted by the PBS to enable the revision. However, beyond professional accuracy, other motivations or dynamics may have impelled the revision. A webinar held on June 15 under the sponsorship of the Population Association of Pakistan highlighted many features and facts that cast doubt on the quality of the 2023 Census. It was noted that the decline of about 8 million persons between 22nd May and 5th August did not occur proportionally in each province. Instead, 7 of the 8 million apparently ‘disappeared’ in the province of Baluchistan, while no change was noted in Islamabad.
The revised population figure of 241.5 million and the annual growth rate of 2.55 % still seem implausible for several reasons. The growth rate is based on the net difference between births and deaths in a country, and the net difference between immigration into and emigration from a country. Previous recent surveys indicate that birth as well as death rates have shown small steady declines during the last decade. Also, there is no evidence of high net migration into the country that could possibly account for the increase in the growth rate.
The 7th census was conducted in haste without adequate preparation and contrary to the advice of the Advisory Committee. The 2023 Census was the first one that attempted to count the total population digitally by using computer tablets. The new digital tools of data collection required more rigorous training than provided. It has been noted by the public that the data collection officer sometimes used a simpler hand-written form with fewer items of information than the actual ‘digital’ Census form. This form asked for the CNIC that was not requested by the actual Census. Some inaccuracies probably occurred due to this apparently dual system of data collection. Confusion about the persons to be included in the Census was also present.
The overwhelming evidence points to over-counting of the population, acknowledged by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, the main architect of the Census. Mechanisms that aided the over-enumeration of the population could have been present. The population number is a central feature of allocating financial resources to the federal and provincial governments, as well as the number of seats in the Assemblies. The concerned authorities must undertake an objective evaluation of the Census results in consultation with demographic experts to provide valid and reliable estimates and ensure that future Censuses can minimize the errors experienced in the 2023 Census.
The rapid decline of the population from 250 to 241.5 million in a few weeks is a cause for concern and calls for an explanation. The revision of the population figures has been attributed to a post-enumeration survey conducted by the PBS. However, beyond professional accuracy, other motivations or dynamics may have impelled the revision. The 7th census was conducted in haste without adequate preparation and contrary to the advice of the Advisory Committee. The overwhelming evidence points to over-counting of the population, acknowledged by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, the main architect of the Census. Mechanisms that aided the over-enumeration of the population could have been present. The concerned authorities must undertake an objective evaluation of the Census results in consultation with demographic experts to provide valid and reliable estimates and ensure that future Censuses can minimize the errors experienced in the 2023 Census.
