A New Era of Scottish Politics: Labour Within Two Points of SNP in Latest Poll
Key Highlights :
The latest survey of Scottish voting intentions ahead of the next general election has Labour within two points of the SNP, presenting a new era of Scottish politics. According to Fabian Society analysis of YouGov survey data, Labour stands at 31 per cent, with the SNP at 33 per cent. This is the closest Labour has been to the SNP in years and could be a sign of a shift in the Scottish political landscape.
The poll also found that Labour’s current support includes 17 per cent of people who voted SNP in 2019, giving the party a chance to make significant gains in Scotland. This comes after the Scottish Fabians previously calculated that Labour needs the backing of one-in-five of those who voted SNP or Green to win 25 target seats across Scotland and form a majority government.
The poll also presented several possible scenarios after the next general election, with a Labour majority government the most popular result in Scotland. Labour had far fewer respondents who said they would never consider voting for the party (28 per cent), compared to 45 per cent who said the same about the SNP and 61 per cent who said they would never consider voting for the Conservatives.
Given the current state of politics in Scotland, the findings of this poll are a promising sign for Labour. National director of the Scottish Fabians, Katherine Sangster, said the poll shows "Labour is well positioned to win target seats across Scotland at the next election." She added: “The evidence is clear – Labour is on the right track towards winning seats across Scotland and forming a majority government whenever the next election is called.”
Keir Starmer is expected to address the Labour Party conference in Liverpool on Monday and is likely to use the poll’s findings to rally support for the party. He is expected to say: “Scotland can lead the way to a Labour Government, but be under no illusions - we must earn every vote.
“The challenge of change remains, but nonetheless, conference for the first time in a long time we can see a tide that is turning. Four nations that are renewing. Old wounds of division – exploited by the Tories and the SNP beginning to heal. So let the message from Rutherglen and Hamilton West ring out across Britain. Labour serves working people in Scotland because Labour serves working people across all these islands.”
The findings of this poll are a sign that Labour is making progress in Scotland and is well-positioned to make gains at the next election. With the SNP and Conservatives both having higher levels of ‘never consider’ voters, Labour has the potential to make significant inroads into the Scottish political landscape. Keir Starmer is sure to use the poll’s findings to rally support for the party and will be hoping that Labour can use the momentum to win the 25 target seats in Scotland and form a majority government.
