The Path to Victory in Trump Country: How Andy Beshear Beat the Odds in Kentucky
Key Highlights :
In a stunning upset, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear beat out state Attorney General Daniel Cameron to secure a second term on Tuesday night. The race was a closely watched one, as Republicans had sought to tie Beshear to President Joe Biden in a state where Biden lost by more than 25 points three years ago. But Beshear survived that onslaught, providing some clues for the 2024 elections and showing that Democrats can still win in Trump country.
Republicans had tried relentlessly to make the race about Biden, running ad after ad tying Beshear to the president in an effort to drag him down. Beshear largely kept his distance, with Biden absent from the Democratic side outside of a bridge ribbon-cutting at the beginning of the year. Republicans also went hard on culture war issues, attacking Beshear on transgender rights and crime.
But Beshear's win shows that voters, even in red states, aren't punishing the Democratic Party broadly for their misgivings with Biden. As Beshear said on Tuesday night, his win was “a message that candidates should run for something and not against someone.”
Beshear's victory will also serve to validate Democrats' extensive focus on abortion in elections since the Supreme Court overturned Roe last year. Beshear launched a series of ads throughout the campaign going after Cameron for the state’s near-total abortion ban, which does not include exemptions for cases of rape or incest.
The fact that Beshear was able to survive the Republican onslaught suggests that Biden's dismal approval ratings might not be as big of an electoral drag as they would appear at first glance. It also signals that former President Donald Trump’s grip over red state voters isn’t absolute.
Cameron's loss may also leave a rising Republican star adrift. Cameron is a protegé of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and had long been seen as the heir apparent to the minority leader’s Senate seat before he launched his gubernatorial bid.
Beshear's win shows that Democrats can still win in Trump country, even in deep-red states. It provides some clues for the 2024 elections and shows that Biden's dismal approval ratings may not be as big of an electoral drag as they would appear at first glance. The race also leaves a rising Republican star adrift, while providing a validation of Democrats' focus on abortion rights messaging.
